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Mysteel:简析税改政策对近期钢材市场的潜在影响
出处: 作者:周经理 发布时间:2019-03-20 08:50:54

3月15日上午十三届全国人大二次会议闭幕后,国务院总理宣布4月1日开始减增值税.由于考虑到增值税是价外税,本质上并不会影响供需。而降增税和近期降小微企业的所得税,总体对工业品降价后的需求、工业企业的利润有较大促进作用。而与我们息息相关的钢铁行业也在发生变化?本次降税将对钢铁行业产生哪些影响?下面笔者简要说明下税改前后影响变化。

首先此次税改政策提出到实施差不多只有半月左右的空档期,虽然此前市场早有一定预期,但实施节点与去年相比少了一半。因此使得产业链上下环节应对政策反应时间短,有所超预期。

钢厂方面,从采购原料而言,4月1日前采购的原料为16%的增票进项,而正常的原料常备库存至少在15天左右,是否意味着钢厂在3月31日前备的原料库存生产的钢材将在4月中旬左右销售,除非钢厂当月把所有原料库存全部变成钢材,不然这半个月必然存在销项16%到13%的转变,而进项在4月1日之前是不会发生明显变化的税差变化。

举例,假设吨钢生产成本3600元,吨钢销售单价为3900元

税改前 进项税额=3600/1.16*16%=496

销项税额=3900/1.16*16%=538

税=538-496=42

税改后 进项税额=3600/1.13*13%=414

销项税额=3900/1.13*13%=449

税=449-414=35

吨钢减税额=42-35=7元

而刚刚笔者也提到一点原料常备库存的时间,导致有近半月的过渡期。简单计算,过渡期(原料价格稳定),税=销项-进项=-47(元),得出原料库存空档期少交税47元/吨。销售方面,考虑到钢厂有不少年协户及代理商,正常结算开票的部分,仍然在4月1日前按16%增票开具,在4月1日后开始实施13%增票,主要是针对贸易商及建筑业公司而言。

出口方面,降税本质上而言对出口肯定是利好,目前出口实施是先征后退,成本降低利于钢材出口竞争力,不过目前来看中国钢材出口价格已然较高,钢厂端必然不会让利出口,同时目前钢厂利润水平不高,降价销售实属下下策。

其实贸易商作为中间流通商环节,其主要买卖行为与钢厂基本一致,钢厂采购是原料,卖出是钢材;而贸易商买入钢材是成本,卖出也是钢材,区别在于进项,一个是原料,一个是钢材,其基本原理一致。考虑到钢厂定价权高,因此实际对于贸易商吨钢减税少于钢厂。

而根据税改前后变化,笔者认为税改政策前钢材市场可能会发生以下几种情况:

第一、作为钢厂,首先可能会增加铁矿、焦炭等原料库存,在生产节奏不变的情况下,在销项减少,进项不变的前提下,理论上短期增加原料库存,可实现减税;其次降低钢材销售节奏,有效的减少资源销售,累库,留足库存下月销售。

第二、作为中间流通环节,贸易商若对于4月市场不是特别悲观,有可能选择把货压到4月再来销售,此时会增加库存,加大累库的节奏,但同时也将透支一部分市场需求;其次和钢厂一样,尽量放缓销售节奏,累库;其次销售买卖之后,尽量选择少开或者隔月开票,不过这种行为本身就有投机行为,并不适用。

第三、对于下游用户而言,降税后,利用税率下调来打压现货价格以此来降低采购成本,有利于缓解资金压力。但考虑到钢厂及贸易商降低销售节奏,市场可销售资源的减少,本月底之前可能会出现放大一部分需求情况。

尽管税改政策当前并未实施,但根据目前情况,近2周可能会扰动钢厂、贸易环节以及下游端的销售及采购策略。总体而言,增值税下调有利于改善制造业生态环境,提高企业经营效率,短期市场情绪对此是偏积极的,长期来看最终上、中、下游以及消费者会根据各自供需溢价对降税的这部分利润进行再分配。


资讯编辑:吴建华 021-26093685 
资讯监督:魏波 021-26093651 

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Error

VelocityViewServlet : Error processing a template for path '/dispatcher'

Invocation of method 'getSelfDefinedById' in class com.mysteel.esite.tags.SelfDefinedTag threw exception org.springframework.remoting.RemoteConnectFailureException: Cannot connect to Hessian remote service at [https://openapi.mysteel.com/alyesitapi/api/esite/CustomPageService]; nested exception is com.caucho.hessian.client.HessianConnectionException: 503: java.io.IOException: Server returned HTTP response code: 503 for URL: https://openapi.mysteel.com/alyesitapi/api/esite/CustomPageService @ /templates/handtailor/2251832/bottom.html[1,49]
org.springframework.remoting.RemoteConnectFailureException: Cannot connect to Hessian remote service at [https://openapi.mysteel.com/alyesitapi/api/esite/CustomPageService]; nested exception is com.caucho.hessian.client.HessianConnectionException: 503: java.io.IOException: Server returned HTTP response code: 503 for URL: https://openapi.mysteel.com/alyesitapi/api/esite/CustomPageService
	at org.springframework.remoting.caucho.HessianClientInterceptor.convertHessianAccessException(HessianClientInterceptor.java:258)
	at org.springframework.remoting.caucho.HessianClientInterceptor.invoke(HessianClientInterceptor.java:227)
	at org.springframework.aop.framework.ReflectiveMethodInvocation.proceed(ReflectiveMethodInvocation.java:172)
	at org.springframework.aop.framework.JdkDynamicAopProxy.invoke(JdkDynamicAopProxy.java:202)
	at com.sun.proxy.$Proxy8.getCustomPageById(Unknown Source)
	at com.mysteel.esite.application.CustomPageAOImpl.getCustomPageById(CustomPageAOImpl.java:27)
	at com.mysteel.esite.tags.SelfDefinedTag.getSelfDefinedById(SelfDefinedTag.java:20)
	at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor36.invoke(Unknown Source)
	at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43)
	at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:606)
	at org.apache.velocity.util.introspection.UberspectImpl$VelMethodImpl.invoke(UberspectImpl.java:295)
	at org.apache.velocity.runtime.parser.node.ASTMethod.execute(ASTMethod.java:245)
	at org.apache.velocity.runtime.parser.node.ASTReference.execute(ASTReference.java:203)
	at org.apache.velocity.runtime.parser.node.ASTReference.value(ASTReference.java:419)
	at org.apache.velocity.runtime.parser.node.ASTExpression.value(ASTExpression.java:73)
	at org.apache.velocity.runtime.parser.node.ASTSetDirective.render(ASTSetDirective.java:125)
	at org.apache.velocity.runtime.parser.node.SimpleNode.render(SimpleNode.java:318)
	at org.apache.velocity.runtime.directive.Parse.render(Parse.java:224)
	at org.apache.velocity.runtime.parser.node.ASTDirective.render(ASTDirective.java:170)
	at org.apache.velocity.runtime.parser.node.SimpleNode.render(SimpleNode.java:318)
	at org.apache.velocity.Template.merge(Template.java:254)
	at org.apache.velocity.tools.view.servlet.VelocityViewServlet.performMerge(VelocityViewServlet.java:762)
	at org.apache.velocity.tools.view.servlet.VelocityViewServlet.mergeTemplate(VelocityViewServlet.java:719)
	at org.apache.velocity.tools.view.servlet.VelocityViewServlet.doRequest(VelocityViewServlet.java:551)
	at org.apache.velocity.tools.view.servlet.VelocityViewServlet.doGet(VelocityViewServlet.java:507)
	at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:622)
	at javax.servlet.http.HttpServlet.service(HttpServlet.java:729)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:291)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:206)
	at org.apache.tomcat.websocket.server.WsFilter.doFilter(WsFilter.java:52)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:239)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:206)
	at com.mysteel.common.XssFilter.doFilter(XssFilter.java from InputFileObject:19)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:239)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:206)
	at com.mysteel.common.SetCharacterEncodingFilter.doFilter(SetCharacterEncodingFilter.java:77)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.internalDoFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:239)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.ApplicationFilterChain.doFilter(ApplicationFilterChain.java:206)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardWrapperValve.invoke(StandardWrapperValve.java:219)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardContextValve.invoke(StandardContextValve.java:106)
	at org.apache.catalina.authenticator.AuthenticatorBase.invoke(AuthenticatorBase.java:502)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardHostValve.invoke(StandardHostValve.java:142)
	at org.apache.catalina.valves.ErrorReportValve.invoke(ErrorReportValve.java:79)
	at org.apache.catalina.valves.AbstractAccessLogValve.invoke(AbstractAccessLogValve.java:617)
	at org.apache.catalina.core.StandardEngineValve.invoke(StandardEngineValve.java:88)
	at org.apache.catalina.connector.CoyoteAdapter.service(CoyoteAdapter.java:518)
	at org.apache.coyote.http11.AbstractHttp11Processor.process(AbstractHttp11Processor.java:1091)
	at org.apache.coyote.AbstractProtocol$AbstractConnectionHandler.process(AbstractProtocol.java:668)
	at org.apache.tomcat.util.net.AprEndpoint$SocketWithOptionsProcessor.run(AprEndpoint.java:2440)
	at java.util.concurrent.ThreadPoolExecutor.runWorker(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:1145)
	at java.util.concurrent.ThreadPoolExecutor$Worker.run(ThreadPoolExecutor.java:615)
	at org.apache.tomcat.util.threads.TaskThread$WrappingRunnable.run(TaskThread.java:61)
	at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:745)
Caused by: com.caucho.hessian.client.HessianConnectionException: 503: java.io.IOException: Server returned HTTP response code: 503 for URL: https://openapi.mysteel.com/alyesitapi/api/esite/CustomPageService
	at com.caucho.hessian.client.HessianURLConnection.sendRequest(HessianURLConnection.java:142)
	at com.caucho.hessian.client.HessianProxy.sendRequest(HessianProxy.java:283)
	at com.caucho.hessian.client.HessianProxy.invoke(HessianProxy.java:170)
	at com.sun.proxy.$Proxy7.getCustomPageById(Unknown Source)
	at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor37.invoke(Unknown Source)
	at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43)
	at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:606)
	at org.springframework.remoting.caucho.HessianClientInterceptor.invoke(HessianClientInterceptor.java:222)
	... 51 more
Caused by: java.io.IOException: Server returned HTTP response code: 503 for URL: https://openapi.mysteel.com/alyesitapi/api/esite/CustomPageService
	at sun.reflect.GeneratedConstructorAccessor75.newInstance(Unknown Source)
	at sun.reflect.DelegatingConstructorAccessorImpl.newInstance(DelegatingConstructorAccessorImpl.java:45)
	at java.lang.reflect.Constructor.newInstance(Constructor.java:526)
	at sun.net.www.protocol.http.HttpURLConnection$6.run(HttpURLConnection.java:1676)
	at sun.net.www.protocol.http.HttpURLConnection$6.run(HttpURLConnection.java:1674)
	at java.security.AccessController.doPrivileged(Native Method)
	at sun.net.www.protocol.http.HttpURLConnection.getChainedException(HttpURLConnection.java:1672)
	at sun.net.www.protocol.http.HttpURLConnection.getInputStream(HttpURLConnection.java:1245)
	at sun.net.www.protocol.https.HttpsURLConnectionImpl.getInputStream(HttpsURLConnectionImpl.java:254)
	at com.caucho.hessian.client.HessianURLConnection.sendRequest(HessianURLConnection.java:122)
	... 58 more
Caused by: java.io.IOException: Server returned HTTP response code: 503 for URL: https://openapi.mysteel.com/alyesitapi/api/esite/CustomPageService
	at sun.net.www.protocol.http.HttpURLConnection.getInputStream(HttpURLConnection.java:1627)
	at java.net.HttpURLConnection.getResponseCode(HttpURLConnection.java:468)
	at sun.net.www.protocol.https.HttpsURLConnectionImpl.getResponseCode(HttpsURLConnectionImpl.java:338)
	at com.caucho.hessian.client.HessianURLConnection.sendRequest(HessianURLConnection.java:109)
	... 58 more